GSCM 209 Week 1 Assignment

GSCM 209 Week 1 Assignment

4.2)

• a)Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?
• b)Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.
• c)Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.
• d)As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results?

4.6

The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

Top of Form

• a)Plot the monthly sales data.
• b)Forecast January sales using each of the following:
  • i)Naive method.
  • ii)A 3-month moving average.
  • iii)A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.
  • iv)Exponential smoothing using an α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.
  • v)A trend projection.
• c)With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales?

4.9

Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows:

• )Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and the prices.
• b)Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part (a).
• c)Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-month average or the 3-month average?
• d)Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast for January of $1.80. Use α = .1, then α = .3, and finally α = .5. Using MAD, which a is the best?